Predicting the Success of your Paid Campaigns by Looking Back

When you’ve been a while in the field of online marketing, you start noticing repeating periodic behavioral trends. These trends can help you in planning ahead, when you’re building your paid campaigns, by predicting your success rate based on past trends. I’ll show you an example of such a prediction strategy by using one of the most popular events worldwide, in the past few months – the UEFA Champions League.

Checking the correlation between Sports merchandise e-commerce shops with Champions League’s matches:

The season started around the end of August, 2013. As you can see in the official UEFA’s match schedule, between the end of August and all the way through mid-December, matches were held regularly. Between mid-December and mid-February, there was a brake with no matches held within that period. From mid-February the matches returned.

I’ve used SimilarWeb PRO to run an analysis of 4 different e-commerce sites which specialize in sports merchandize:


As you can see below, all of these showed exactly the same traffic trend – an increase between September and December, a decrease between December and February and an increase between February and March.


Basically by following up on traffic trends of websites in your niche, and identifying patterns and correlations, such as the one I’ve just showed you, you can predict the optimal time to run a campaign on, hence increasing your chances for success. In a matter of minutes you switch your decision making process from intuitive to educated by relying on real traffic stats.

About the Author -

Natalie Halimi is the Head of Marketing Communications & Education at SimilarWeb. With over 10 years of experience in marketing, Natalie has promoted services and products in the B2C and B2B arenas, in various industries.

Discover the secrets of online success