The Oscars: Predicting Award and Fashion Winners

Oscar season is in full swing and with the big event slated for this Sunday, February 27th, its time to fill out your brackets, plan your party, and find out who rocks the Red Carpet. Using SimilarWeb data we can help with your Oscar predictions and discover which fashion designers benefited the most from their Red Carpet looks.

For the awards, we used SimilarWeb data to predict the Oscar winner for Best Picture and Lead Actor/Actress. In order to do this, we first looked at 2015 traffic to the popular film review site rottentomatoes.com. Using SimilarWeb’s popular pages function, we can determine the most popular Oscar movies on the site and rank them by incoming traffic. In first place, Mad Max: Fury Road was responsible for 0.95% of all of Rotten Tomatoes’ U.S. traffic. Traffic to the film’s page far surpassed any other nominee and the action film scored an impressive 97% on the Tomatometer.  Looking down the list, 8th and last place belongs to The Revenant, a historical action adventure film, directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu. The page only brought in .07% of Rotten Tomatoes’ 2015 traffic and scored a much lower 82% on the Tomatometer. Based on this data alone, we might be inclined to say that Mad Max should win the Oscar, but casual internet habits of 2015 may not reflect the opinions of The Academy. In fact, it is usually not the most popular video which wins the top prize, as evidenced by the 87th Oscars, where Birdman took the top prize, but Boyhood was most popular on Rotten Tomatoes.

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Instead, To get a better picture of what people are searching for in the lead-up to the Oscars, we looked at search traffic to Wikipedia over the last 28 days (as of February 22nd, 2016). This data tells a completely different story, and unlike Rotten Tomatoes which had The Revenant in last, data shows that with over 450,000 search visits, The Revenant is in fact the most searched Best Picture nominee on Wikipedia. For more information on how SimilarWeb can help you discover top search visits, contact us here for a demo.

Going into the Oscars, The Revenant has been all the rage, with many predicting it to take home the most coveted prize and forecasting a long-awaited Best Actor award to the film’s star, Leonardo DiCaprio (more on this soon). We are inclined to agree, and though The Revenant performed poorly on Rotten Tomatoes in 2015, interest is heating up fast, indicating an Oscar is on the way.

Data’s pick: The Revenant for Best Picture
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After Best Picture, the 2 most coveted awards are the individual awards for Actor and Actress in a Leading Role. Here again, we used SimilarWeb data to try and determine who will win the top individual prize, and, as mentioned, we are picking Revenant’s lead actor, Leonardo DiCaprio. To get to this conclusion, we examined the most popular pages on oscar.go.com, the official domain of The Oscars. Using SimilarWeb data we are able to see the most popular page in each category on both desktop and mobile devices. The rankings on desktop and mobile are slightly different, but with the top spot and mobile, and second place on desktop, Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscar bio is the most popular online. This suggests that casual viewers and industry experts alike are viewing the actor’s page in anticipation of a long-awaited individual Oscar.

Data’s pick: Leonardo DiCaprio for Actor in a Leading Role

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For Actress in a Leading Role, we used the same methodology to predict the winner and in this case, Cate Blanchett’s Oscar profile was the most popular of the 5 women nominated. Blanchett who plays the lead in the romantic-drama Carol would be in line for her third individual Oscar, should she win. Brie Larson, a popular pick for this award, only ranked third, and though her performance in Room was extraordinary, we have to go with the data on this one.

Data’s pick: Cate Blanchett for Actress in a Leading Role

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Asides from the actual awards, everyone knows the most important part of the Oscars is usually not the people, but what (and who) they are wearing. For fashion designers across the world, The Oscars are one of the most important times of year to showcase their work and for some, this can lead to a big increase in web traffic. To find the top designers who benefited from Oscars web traffic, we examined dozens of designers based on popsugar.com‘s list of the top Oscar fashion in 2015. By examining the desktop and mobile traffic of these designers, some big like Chanel and Saint Laurent, and other smaller such as J. Mendel and Alberta Ferretti we were able to see 3 designers for whom Oscar season was by far their most important period online.

For designers Elie Saab, Zuhair Murad, and Monique Lhullier, not only did they kill it on the actual Red Carpet, these brand also rocked the Online Red Carpet and saw big gains in the wake of the 87th Oscars, (which took place February 22nd, 2015).

Of these 3, Eli Saab was the biggest winner and the Lebanese fashion designer had 176,200 worldwide desktop and mobile visits during the period from Feb 26th to March 4th, far surpassing any other 7 day period in 2015. Saab designed the dress for the uber popular Jennifer Lopez, and also the gown worn by Emma Stone who herself was nominated for an Oscar for her supporting role in Birdman.

Aside from Saab, fellow Lebanese designer Zuhair Murad and Filipino designer Monique Lhuillier also had their busiest weeks online in the aftermath of the 2015 Oscars. Unlike Saab, their most traffic was during the period immediately after the Oscars, from Feb 19th to Feb 25th 2015. Lhuillier had 38,400 visits over those 7 days and Murad was close behind with 35,100. On the Red Carpet, Murad designed outfits for swimsuit model Chrissy Teigen, actress Jenna Dewan Tatum, and actress/producer Anna Farris, while Lhullier designed for Louise Roe, a popular English television presenter.

About the Author -

Joseph is a Digital Insights and Content Manager at SimilarWeb. He has experience in content writing, social media, and analytics. When not tracking digital trends and creating online content, Joseph enjoys hiking, basketball, pickling, and Canadian alternative music.

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