{"id":36373,"date":"2021-08-17T09:04:28","date_gmt":"2021-08-17T09:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/corp\/?p=36373"},"modified":"2025-07-15T12:04:15","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:04:15","slug":"nowcasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/investor\/asset-research\/nowcasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowcasting: Using Alternative Data to Predict the Present"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The value of predicting the future has always been rather obvious. Knowing what will happen next is a major advantage in all aspects of life, and particularly in the fields of economics and money management.<\/p>\n<p><i>Nowcasting <\/i>is a relatively new term, originating from meteorology, where it provides short-term forecasts of weather conditions. The term made its way to economics over the last twenty years. A portmanteau of \u201cnow\u201d and \u201cforecasting,\u201d nowcasting is the prediction of the present.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s discuss nowcasting in more detail, and how investors can leverage <a href=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/corp\/stocks\/alternative-data\/\">alternative data<\/a> in nowcasting models.<\/p>\n<h2>What is nowcasting?<\/h2>\n<p>Nowcasting is essentially a way to monitor conditions in near real-time. Many define nowcasting as a prediction of the present, or very near future.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-88712 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-definition-1.png\" alt=\"nowcasting definition\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-definition-1.png 960w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-definition-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-definition-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Economists and other finance professionals need to make decisions based on current conditions. To do this, they use nowcasting economics in order to understand the current state of the economy, or the present economic performance of a certain company or business.<\/p>\n<h2>Alternative data for nowcasting<\/h2>\n<p>A key element of nowcasting is the availability of present data. Without the data, you have nothing to base your models off. However, unfortunately, official data releases are often delayed, sometimes to an extent where data is released long after the timeframe in question has passed.<\/p>\n<p>Some data, such as retail sales, is available on a monthly basis, which allows for only a monthly revision of nowcasting models.<\/p>\n<p><b>How do we get around this? Alternative data.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The near real-time availability of alternative data takes nowcasting a step further by allowing investors to perfect nowcasting models with a constant flow of new near real-time information.<\/p>\n<p>For example, at Similarweb, our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/website\/\">web and app traffic data<\/a> is available within three days, much faster than most indicators. This data can potentially allow us to nowcast different indicators, such as jobless claims and earnings reports.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/investor\/asset-research\/what-is-alternative-data\/\"><b><i>Read more<\/i><\/b><b><i> about alternative data-sets and how to integrate them into your investment process.<\/i><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Nowcasting in practice<\/h2>\n<p>Nowcasting economics is used in a number of different contexts both macro and microeconomic, below we will discuss a few.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-88711 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-in-practice-1.png\" alt=\"Nowcasting in practice\" width=\"960\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-in-practice-1.png 960w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-in-practice-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-in-practice-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Nowcasting GDP<\/h3>\n<p>The most famous economic indicator that is often nowcasted is the gross domestic product (GDP). Official GDP estimates are released only after the quarter\u2019s end, with the final reading available only a full three months after the quarter\u2019s end.<\/p>\n<p>In a fast-paced world of split-second decision-making, waiting three months for a data release is an anomaly. In order to get more timely estimates, economists at the Atlanta federal reserve bank built <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\">GDPNow<\/a>, a model that estimates real GDP growth for the current measured quarter based on statistical models and more readily available macroeconomic data, such as international trade or retail sales. Still, it is not an official forecast of the Atlanta fed.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_36402\" style=\"width: 1034px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36402\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36402\" src=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GDPNow-1024x539.png\" alt=\"GDPNow\" width=\"1024\" height=\"539\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GDPNow-1024x539.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GDPNow-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GDPNow-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GDPNow.png 1219w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-36402\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GDPNow<\/p><\/div>\n<h3>Nowcasting Jobless Claims<\/h3>\n<p>Recently, investment professionals and professional forecasters have started to rely on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/investor\/asset-research\/alternative-data-provider\/\">alternative data providers<\/a>, such as Similarweb, to provide real-time economic signals.<\/p>\n<p>Web traffic data allows us to measure the changes in traffic to state unemployment sites on a daily basis. Since citizens can now file for unemployment online, it serves as a useful proxy to understand recent trends in the job market, long before the official data release, or before the period that it pertains to ends.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-36403 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Heatmap-unemployment-1024x570.png\" alt=\"Heatmap unemployment\" width=\"1024\" height=\"570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Heatmap-unemployment-1024x570.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Heatmap-unemployment-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Heatmap-unemployment-768x428.png 768w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Heatmap-unemployment.png 1027w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Using this near real-time data, it is possible to instantly identify changes in unemployment, and this data can be used in nowcasting models.<\/p>\n<h3>Nowcasting Earnings Reports<\/h3>\n<p>The use of nowcasting isn\u2019t limited to economic indicators. On a microeconomic level, nowcasting can be used to determine the performance of a given company during a given timeframe.<\/p>\n<p>Say you are a public investor, you can use a nowcasting model to understand a company\u2019s quarterly performance, and how this fits in with analysts\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/investor\/asset-research\/earnings-forecasts\/\">earnings forecasts<\/a>. This can give you a serious advantage to either go long or short, before the market reacts to the company\u2019s official earnings report.<\/p>\n<p>Like jobless claims, you can use web-traffic alternative data to build nowcasting models as a proxy for earnings reports.<\/p>\n<p>For example, since the beginning of COVID-19 lockdowns, Similarweb\u2019s web-traffic alternative data indicated a massive increase in traffic to web conferencing websites, such as Zoom, in near real-time.<\/p>\n    <div class=\"js-infographic-script\" data-id=\"infogram_0_2af7d62b-3c64-497b-b908-dda140125960\" data-title=\"Blog_Nowcasting_Zoom_line_2108\" data-src=\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed.js?0pc\"><\/div>\n\n<h2>To finish<\/h2>\n<p>As we surveyed the different applications of nowcasting, there is little doubt that the ability to identify shifts in real-time and to incorporate them into nowcasting models is immensely useful to investors.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/account.similarweb.com\/journey\/registration\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-88713 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-banner-FRO-1.png\" alt=\"Nowcasting banner FRO\" width=\"858\" height=\"218\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-banner-FRO-1.png 858w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-banner-FRO-1-300x76.png 300w, https:\/\/www.similarweb.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Nowcasting-banner-FRO-1-768x195.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 858px) 100vw, 858px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Nowcasting FAQ<\/h2>\n<p><strong>What is nowcasting used for?<\/strong><br \/>\nTo predict present, or very near future.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is the difference between nowcasting and forecasting?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nowcasting is a portmanteau of \u201cnow\u201d and \u201cforecasting,\u201d. Forecasting focuses on the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The value of predicting the future has always been rather obvious. Knowing what will happen next is a major advantage in all aspects of life, and particularly in the fields of economics and money management. Nowcasting is a relatively new term, originating from meteorology, where it provides short-term forecasts of weather conditions. The term made [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123,"featured_media":65994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6656,2807],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asset-research","category-investor"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nowcasting With Alternative Data: Predict the Present | Similarweb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Read how alternative data can be used to create and refine economic nowcasting models by providing thousands of near-real-time data points. 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