Shopify Web Traffic Suggests Weakness: Q2 Preview
Insights

Shopify Web Traffic Suggests Weakness: Q2 Preview

by Jim Corridore , Senior Analyst 3 Min.
July 21, 2022 | Updated August 2, 2022

Weakening monthly visits to shopify.com and weaker referral traffic along with tepid sign-ups are a sign of concern in upcoming quarters. Less traffic to Shopify’s main web page implies that demand for the service is weakening. Second quarter traffic to Shopify.com declined 5%, year over year. Shopify reports Q2 results on July 27.

Key takeaways

  • Visits to shopify.com fell 5% year over year, and only grew 1.4% versus Q1. After reaching highs of about 79.5 million monthly visitors during the height of the pandemic in August 2020, monthly web visits in June 2022 were 55.07 million, a drop of 31% from the pandemic peak.
  • Traffic to Shopify’s signups page rose only 0.4% versus the prior year, signaling a potential revenue slowdown in upcoming periods and potentially lower customer engagement
  • Referral traffic declined in Q2, which could be a sign of less partner engagement or less end-user engagement at Shopify customers’ own pages. Either way, a decline in traffic could lead to lower revenues over time

Monthly Visits could provide clarity into Q2 Gross Merchandising Revenue (GMR) trends

Monthly visits to shopify.com were down 5% year over year. Falling traffic could be due to worries about inflation, the risk of inflation, and falling consumer confidence. These negative trends could impact GMR in Q2 and the second half of 2022.

Growth on monthly visits to Shopify.com

 

Traffic to the Signup Page Increased in Q2, but not significantly

Signups to Shopify are likely a leading indicator of future revenue performance and Similarweb data shows a negative trend here. Signup traffic to Shopify’s signup page in Q2 grew only 0.4% on a year-over-year basis. Whether it be a weaker economic environment or a problem with the company’s customer engagement, the data clearly shows a slowdown in new customer additions.

 

Monthly visits to Shopify's signup page

 

July traffic starting out slower as well

A look at worldwide daily traffic to shopify.com for the month of July (through July 24) shows that total traffic on an apples-to-apples basis was down 1.6%, a continuation of the trends the company’s website experienced in Q2. It looks like Q3 is starting out weak as well.

Shopify.com July daily traffic

Referral Traffic Down

Referral traffic is web traffic that comes from other sources. Shopify gets 26.3% of its total web traffic from referrals. Referring traffic is clearly an important part of the story for Shopify, so trends over time are important to look at.

 

Change in referral traffic to Shopify.com year-over-year

 

Referring traffic fell 1.7% in April rose a modest 1.9% in May and fell 10.2% in June, year over year. This seems to imply that Shopify may have been impacted during the quarter by economic pressures, inflation concerns, or less customer engagement. This could impact GMR in Q2 and potentially in the second half of the year as well.

Data tells a story of a potential slowdown

Weakening web traffic and referral traffic along with tepid sign ups is a sign for concern in upcoming quarters.

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Report By: Jim Corridore, Senior Insights Manager

Methodology

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