santafe.edu Website Analysis for May 2026

Politics sit at the nexus of multiple complex systems, including: financial markets, evolving technological ecosystems, global trade networks, foreign governments, domestic belief networks, and many more. The interdependencies between these systems often limit the value of linear models of political phenomena. However, complexity science can offer new lenses for analyzing these phenomena. For example, if democracy constitutes a collective intelligence, can we identify adjacent collective intelligences - such as political betting markets - that provide more frequent data on the state of the electorate? If we can model the forces that drive polarization in an electorate, can we better understand our current political situation and thus better intuit future regulatory trends? This day-long meeting will explore how insights from complexity science can help us to better anticipate and understand political risk. Overview Agenda *All times in U.S. Eastern. Agenda subject to change, so please check back often!* Tuesday, October 15th New York, NY 9:00AM Breakfast Available 9:30AM Meeting Start and Welcome with Michael Mauboussin (Morgan Stanley & SFI Trustee) and Will Tracy (Santa Fe Institute) 9:45AM Presentation and Q&A on Political Betting Markets and Prediction with Rajiv Sethi (Columbia University & SFI) 10:30AM Morning Break 10:45AM Panel on Polarization, with Q&A  with Simon Levin (Princeton University & SFI), Keena Lipsitz (Queens College), Samuel Wang (Princeton University), and Vicky Chuqiao Yang (MIT Sloan) 12:15PM Lunch 1:15PM Presentation and Q&A on Norms, Institutions, and Political Discourse with Hahrie Han (Johns Hopkins University) 2:00PM Conversation and Q&A on China and G