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AMetSoc

wmo.int

As of mid-August 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators continue to reflect ENSO-neutral conditions, which have persisted since March 2025, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining near average across the equatorial Pacific. However, these conditions are likely to gradually make way for La Niña conditions to emerge in the coming months, potentially starting in September 2025. According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, there is a 55% chance for sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to cool to La Niña levels, and a 45% chance for them to remain at ENSO-neutral levels during the upcoming September–November 2025 period. For October– December 2025, the probability of La Niña establishment slightly increases to about 60%, while the chances for ENSO-neutral conditions to persist decrease to around 40%. The chances of El Niño developing during the September–December period are negligible. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks as needed. Factsheet: El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2025)

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