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polymarket.com

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on future events across various topics.

predictionhunt.com

How Prediction Hunt collects, uses, and protects your data - account information, product analytics, cookies, third-party processors, and your privacy choices.

metaculus.com

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

lesswrong.com

A community blog devoted to refining the art of rationality

astralcodexten.com

P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary. Click to read Astral Codex Ten, by Scott Alexander, a Substack publication.

realclearpolling.com

2024 Arizona Senate - Lake vs. Gallego | RealClearPolling

forum.effectivealtruism.org

Political polarization refers to the increasing ideological and emotional division between political groups. While polarization can occur in many countries, most discussion on the EA Forum has focused on the United States, where partisan hostility has intensified since the 1990s. This trend may affect longtermist cause areas, undermine epistemic integrity, and constrain institutional effectiveness. From an effective altruist perspective, political polarization may increase s-risk factors such as malevolent leadership, value lock-in, and societal breakdown. It may also restrict research and advocacy on politically sensitive topics such as AI alignment, animal welfare, and global health policy. Despite being most acute in the U.S., polarization is not globally uniform: some countries have seen stable or declining polarization. Understanding which dynamics are context-specific can help shape robust responses. Interventions and proposals * Electoral reform: Proposals include adopting ranked-choice voting or proportional representation to reduce winner-take-all dynamics. Forum contributors have debated the pros and cons of approval voting and IRV. * Citizen assemblies: Increasing intergroup contact through deliberative democratic processes may reduce polarization and improve trust in institutions. * Institutional reform: Proposals include Supreme Court restructuring, changes to the debt ceiling process, and reforms to media or tech governance. * Migration strategies: Some suggest building geographic resilience by relocating EA-aligned institutions to more politically stable regions or countries less affected by polarization Further reading * Aird, Michael (2020) Collection of EA analyses of political polarisation, Effective Altruism Forum, June 26. Many additional resources on this topic. * Alexander, Scott (2021) Book Review: Why We're Polarized, Astral Codex Ten, February 10. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-why-were-polarized * Baumann

epoch.ai

About FrontierMath: Open Problems, a benchmark of unsolved mathematics problems curated with professional mathematicians.

nel.ag

galen mead's interweb domain site.

poker.org

The new Moneymaker Poker Tour announces a 12-day visit to Hard Rock Casino Cincinnati, September 21 to October 2, 2023.